FUJI ANALYSIS: A race of two halves

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I feel like we say this after every FIA World Endurance Championship race this year, but every single race deserves it: what a race we had at Fuji.

It had everything: drama, close battles, and cars from almost every manufacturer leading overall at some point (poor Peugeot).

The race felt like a race of two halves. The first was dominated at the front by the Cadillac-Porsche-BMW battle, with Toyota seemingly not possessing the pace of the leaders, although they weren't that far off.

Then, in the second half, Toyota unleashed some pace and it looked for all intents and purposes like they'd storm to a victory which looked unlikely in the first 3 hours.

Then they blew it, for the second race in a row (although COTA was much, much better than Fuji for them...).

Cadillac, BMW, and Porsche rule the roost

It's immediately clear that in the first two hours, the Cadillac and #15 BMW were the fastest cars. This was reflected on track, with Earl Bamber and Marco Wittmann running first and second and pulling away from the #6 Porsche of Laurens Vanthoor in that first safety car-interrupted hour.

Indeed, if we look at the first half of the race, Bamber and Lynn in the Cadillac were far and away the quickest on track, by two tenths a lap over the #5 Porsche, which was playing catchup after Makowiecki got caught in the first lap incident, pitted for repairs, then had to pit again as he'd pitted when the pitlane was closed.

The fastest Toyota, meanwhile, in the first half of the race, was the #7 Toyota, but was only fifth quickest, behind both the factory Penske-run Porsches and the #15 BMW. Looking at the first half of the race, with the leading Toyota half a second a lap on average off the fastest car, you wouldn't have them pegged as contenders for the win on pace in the second half.

Further down the field, the Alpines were not as fast as they had appeared in practice, and as usual, the Peugeots were struggling for pace. Somewhat surprisingly, the JOTA Porsches were also struggling, while the factory Porsches were among the fastest cars.

In the second half of the race, however, the tables turned.

Toyota and Cadillac blow it

The second half of the race was remarkably different to the first.

The first thing to note is the speed of the #35 Alpine, quickest overall in the last 3 hours, eight tenths a lap faster than in the first half. Wow!

If Alpine can harness that pace, they'll be challenging for wins and podiums very quickly. Part of the issue was the #35 Alpine's position in the midfield, having to make its way through. It was, though, looking at a podium in the hands of Charles Milesi, until he had to take a drive through for his role in the incident which ended the Cadillac's race.

Speaking of: Cadillac blew this race. While they weren't the fastest car overall in the second half, they were fourth quickest and, as we can see in the chart below, they were quickest overall on average through this race.

Once again, the team's bad luck, and seeming need to push even when not strictly necessary, cost them dear. If Bamber had taken more caution when trying to overtake Marciello, who knows what could have been?

The other team that blew it were Toyota. The #7 car was in prime position to win, or at least finish strongly on the podium, when the safety car came out for to recover the Lamborghini.

Yes the safety car gave the #6 Porsche the upper hand, but the Toyota had enough pace, under two tenths off the Porsche on average a lap in the second half of the race, to challenge.

Once again, Kamui Kobayashi's aggressive driving style cost them dear and may have also cost them the championship, as well as a strong finish, if not a win, at their home race.

The other thing to note is the strong pace of the #15 BMW. It was faster in the second half of the race than the winning #6 Porsche, and a smidge faster in the race overall, on average, by under a couple of hundredths a lap.

So what cost them the win? Estre's pace at the end was electrifying — four tenths faster a lap according to the line graph at the top of this page.

But it was time spent in the pits that really cost BMW the race win. The #6 Porsche spent well over a minute less in the pits compared to the #15 BMW, pitting five times compared to the BMW's six.

Look at the numbers: #6 Porsche spent 6m20s in the pits, while the #15 BMW spent 7m49 in the pits. I had originally thought Porsche – and Cadillac — had made an error not pitting under the first virtual safety car period. But Porsche Penske proved me wrong. Bravo.

In the end, both teams ran faultlessly to finish first and second — but Porsche ran faultlessly 'better', if that's possible. That said, BMW are likely delighted with their podium, as should Alpine be with theirs. And it puts the #6 Porsche crew in touching distance of the championship.

A great race. Onwards to Bahrain!