Analysis from The Racing Line has shown that Toyota have the fastest long run pace in the four free practice sessions leading up the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
When taking the top 40% of lap times in each free practice session for each car and then averaging them out to create a single average lap time for each car in each practice session, the #7 Toyota emerges on top, with a 3:29.213, set in the first free practice session.
Across the other sessions, the #7 Toyota was 17th quickest over averaged-out long run pace in the second session, with a 3:31.635, 1.8 seconds off the leading #51 Ferrari.
In the third session, the #7 Toyota was second fastest when looking at averages, with a 3:29.984 average, just under three tenths off on average from the sister #8 Toyota.
And in the fourth session, the short one hour session after Hyperpole on Thursday, the #50 Ferrari led with a 3:30.043. The #7 Toyota was just under six tenths off on this occasion.
When you take the averages for cars from all teams in each practice session, however, a startling fact emerges: Toyota were quickest in all but one of the practice sessions when looking at the long run averages.
Alpine could end up being a surprise challenger in the race: the French squad had the second fastest long run pace to Toyota in FP1 and FP4. They were four tenths behind in the first practice session, and just over a hundredth slower in the fourth.
Pre-race week favourites, Porsche, may not be the favourites any more when looking at the long run pace. The factory team was fourth-fastest in FP1, seventh-fastest in FP2, fourth-fastest in FP3, and fifth-fastest in FP4.
This is a sentiment Andre Lotterer agreed with when The Racing Line spoke to him on Friday.
“I don't think we are the favourites anymore in terms of pace, if you look at the last practise sessions,” said Lotterer.
“But we're there. Definitely in the top three, four cars, fastest cars. So the key is now to do the job. It's all nice to sound or look like favourites but there's a mountain in front of us. That throws us challenges at every minute or every second of the the race that you need to to master.”
Cadillac, who qualified second and third (although the #2 Cadillac, which was second in Hyperpole, will be demoted 5 places on the grid due to the penalty from the crash at Spa), finished a highest of third-fastest in FP3, over half a second on average off Toyota and just smidge slower than Ferrari.
Interestingly Peugeot may have retained their prowess in wet weather which impressed everyone at Le Mans last year. They were fourth-quickest in FP4, although they were over a second slower than Toyota, wth Alpine and Proton in between.
Have a look at the data from each practice session below and see what you think!
FP1
FP2
FP3
FP4